FXDD Auto trading results log on Page 3 at Nobullshit Network Forum

phildunn · 06-05-2007, 12:44 PM

So FXDD auto is actually offer managed accounts to people?

**allinvain** · 06-05-2007, 12:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by phildunn

So FXDD auto is actually offer managed accounts to people?

technically it's not a "managed account", it's more like a "self-managed" account with the help of trading signals received by a third party (ie not FXDD).

Optional · 06-05-2007, 01:08 PM

Sorry for error with MT3/4 and thanks for correcting that.

You asked about a guide Jude.... well this is 25 pages long but was just emailled to me from the FXDD rep... cant find it on their site anywhere, so uploaded here in case anyone wants a copy: http://www.hyiphound.com/temp/FXDDAuto_Quickguide.pdf
(I'll delete it from server in a week or so.. so grab it if you want it)

Pages 20-24 step people through choosing a signal portfolio to suit them and how to calculate the actual risk/reward maths and setup your money management to suit.... if anyone else decides to join in and test a demo account too, those pages will make picking the signals a lot easier than it was for me before reading it.

Optional · 06-05-2007, 05:08 PM

Allinvain and Gaby have kindly posted their signal portfolio over in the other thread about this

So I thought I would work through page 20-24 of the above guide and calculate out the results for all three of us.

From the guide:

Quote:

Calculating the maximum drawdown to date of your chosen portfolio.

Pulling up the trade history from the last 12 months the client can view the cumulative pips for each pair/provider. The client wishes to trade a maximum of 5 currency pairs for diversification and needs to calculate his/her leverage for the portfolio.

CASE STUDY 1.

Client Type “A” – Prefers High Frequency Trading, always in “market , Higher Risk

Looking through the trade history they see that “currency-specialist” seems to generate a lot of trades, also “Gun-tech”, “Omi-FX” relative to the rest of the systems.

Client A decides to go with the following portfolio based on their assessment of high volume trading system:

 Pair1: OMI-FX GBPUSD
 Pair2: OMI-FX EURUSD
 Pair3: Gun-Tech USDCAD
 Pair4: Currency Specialist EURUSD
 Pair5: Currency Specialist GBPUSD

(a) An Equally Balanced Portfolio

Based on previous trade history the maximum cumulative drawdown of the 5 currency pairs combined is -2068 pips, with the cumulative pips standing at +4912pips.

Based on this the client needs to allow for a -20.7% drawdown for a return of +49.1% based on previous trade data at leverage of 1:1.

There are 2 important things to note here:

1. This is assuming the signal pairs all hit a drawdown in parallel which is highly unlikely but possible.

2. Past performance is not indicative of future returns and the worst drawdown for any system may not have occurred yet.

(b) “Trimming” the Portfolio

Client A decides they have more scope for improving their performance over the course by trimming the portfolio to 3 pairs and removing the pairs that have demonstrated a higher drawdown over the last 12months.

By removing the “Omi-FX” GBPUSD pair, along with the “Currency-Specialist” GBPUSD, the statistics change to the following: Total drawdown for the 3 remaining pairs is -811pips, with a gross return of +3077pips, which is a combined Risk Adjusted Return Factor of 3.79, which is an improvement of the above portfolio of 2.38.

There are 2 important things to note here:

1. Assuming the currency pairs retain similar performance in the future.
2. By reducing the number of pairs decreases the diversification within the portfolio which makes it more susceptible to one pair having a “losing streak”

Here are the results of those calcs for our bags...... The column marked RARF is the Risk Adjusted Return Factor referred to above. The Higher this number, the Safer the strategy is.

This shows I needs to allow for a -34.45% drawdown for a return of +65.55% compared to Allinvain's bag which has a far higher RARF and only needs to allow for a -14% drawdown whilst aiming at +85% return.

**gaby** · 06-05-2007, 06:10 PM

ubertrading have made an ubermistake...

they opened a long (buy) position and they put both S/L and T/P above the buy price

so the S/L was triggered earning a single pip...

had it gone the other way ... it would have never stopped

So it is good if you do take a look once in a while (if live) and close erroneous trades yourself..

Optional · 06-05-2007, 07:16 PM

Thanks for the heads up on that.

Did they recitify the error fast do you know?

**gaby** · 06-05-2007, 07:21 PM

well.. they opened 3 concurrent trades (a second apart). this was the last of the three..
the previous two had correct S/L and T/P..

This is a risk with autotrading signals.. In my understanding they cannot do anything about it ... since the signal has been 'signaled' the trade is open and they do not have any access to the account ...(it is not MA).

Someone who knows more could clarify if they can alter an open trade that was initiated by their signal... (although i doubt it, as that would mean MA)

Optional · 06-05-2007, 07:25 PM

Well they can add trailing stops I know for sure... and they can close it anytime they please manually at their end I am sure... but was anyone actually watching it to fix the problem was my concern.

As you cant close orders in the demo, I assume they closed it soon after opening it? If so, how many minutes had passed from the open to close?

*Edit: I think that's why I dismissed Ubertrading when making selections.. they open up to 6 trades at once. (presumably to allow staggered closing, to cut losses or lock in profits)

**gaby** · 06-05-2007, 08:07 PM

The trade closed after 11 hours ..

hmm .. trailing stops made me look it a bit more .. and maybe it was not an uber mistake after all..

all three trades were opened at 07:29
the other two closed at 18:13 and 18:14 with 7 pips profit each.
this one closed after the others at 18:23 which means, probably, that they left it open and changed the S/L to 1 pip profit. Other wise it would have stopped way earlier than the other ... They most likely wanted to check if it would go any higher (or test their predictions ..)

not so bad after all..

**allinvain** · 06-05-2007, 08:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gaby

well.. they opened 3 concurrent trades (a second apart). this was the last of the three..
the previous two had correct S/L and T/P..

This is a risk with autotrading signals.. In my understanding they cannot do anything about it ... since the signal has been 'signaled' the trade is open and they do not have any access to the account ...(it is not MA).

Someone who knows more could clarify if they can alter an open trade that was initiated by their signal... (although i doubt it, as that would mean MA)

They can easily cancel the trades once they've issued them. Remember, they have 100% control over your account, but they have to follow your Money Management rules. You can change your money management rules by going to the "Portfolio Builder" and altering the "Money Management" option. One useful setting that I like is the "fixed ratio". It allows me for example to increase the number of lots a signal provider opens once the account balance reaches a certain specified sum. Word of caution: DO NOT USE THIS WITH SIGNAL PROVIDERS THAT OPEN MORE THAN 1 POSITION. hehehehe, don't say I didn't warn you.